Variance Continues

Just when you think you're on a run, the variance kicks in! I'd been on a bit of a heater over the past 48 hours, adding about 10% to the bankroll. This morning though reality returned, I think I had my worst single session, losing about a buyin and a half. Reviewing the hands on PT I wasn't really unhappy with any of my plays, except maybe where I had JJ on a 6 5 2 5 board. Villian bet check called all the way, including my river bet, and showed A6 for the rivered boat. Perhaps I should have checked behind on the river, knowing that any 6 or 5 had me beat, 43 as well although I doubt that hand would have called my pre-flop raise.

Anyway this isnt about bad beat stories, but I do want to use one hand to illustrate something that I am thinking about. This hand was the first real big one of the session. I'm UTG with AcAs, first time I have seen Aces in quite a while. Aces have been good to me so far, PT says I was running at 93% with them, higher than you'd expect. I'd made a few raises lately so was hoping I had a fairly aggressive image, and was praying that this would be the hand that someone would take a stand and re-raise. Didn't happen though, and only the SB called my 3.5 bb raise.

The flop comes Js 4c Td, so no flush draws out there but some potential OESD, I'm hoping this guy has hit his J and wants to play. I bet $1.30 into a $1.70 pot, he calls pretty quickly, but not an insta-call. Turn is 5d, which I think is a pretty good card for me - I'm not putting him on diamonds at this stage or a small straight draw, and I cant see 55 calling the bet either. So I am thinking only the original OESD is the danger, and I dont want to drive him away if he is holding a J or T, so I bet $3.50 into the $4.30 pot - a significant bet but still under pot. Again, the relatively quick call.

River is the Qd, thats an awful card for me. QJ just made two pair, so did QT, and 98 made the straight. Q9 would be a good holding, he makes top pair but is losing to my AA. At this point he only has $3.40 left and with the pot at $11.30 I'm not getting way. I put him all in and he insta-calls and shows AK for the rivered striaght. DIdn't see the gutshot coming.

The point of this is not a bad beat story but bet sizing. I'm wondering here if there is anything I could have done to drive this guy away, he seemed to like his gutshot. Conversely, should I be driving him away ... most times he doesnt hit and I take a nice pot. I need to think about this more and see if there was anything I could have done better ... or whether long term I want donks calling me down with these sort of draws knowing I will win in the long run.